What I had in mind to do is use data on land surface characteristics
to modify the mesoscale circulation model we've been using to simulate
atmospheric flow in the phoenix metro area. We'd like to make use of the
data that has been collected by various groups. Once we've customized the
model, we hope to use it to simulate changes to the local circulations
as the metro area expands. I think this fits in well with the objectives
listed in the announcement listed in the NSF Geosciences directorate.
-Joe Zehnder
Hello Ramon,
I looked over what you had posted to the web page and it looks
like a great start. I downloaded the ITR Program
solicitation a while back and I was originally thinking of something
under the AP (Applications in Science and
Engineering) area. What you had described seemed more like IM (Information
Management). The announcement does
state that cross-area proposals are accepted, but I don't know if that
helps, hurts or doesn't matter.
I read through your draft preproposal and there are a couple of items
in your section titled:
(IT/urban studies/urban ecology challenges)
that work I have been discussing with colleagues here in geography
addresses.
Specifically, 2) relationships between land use and climate and 4) natural and artificial patterns of water flow.
We are currently running a community mesoscale model that simulates
atmospheric circulation and precipitation. I can
give you more details on the model, but it basically integrates the
3-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in time. The
model is initialized with wind, pressure, temperature, etc. and the
circulation evolves in response to external forcing that
comes in large part from surface heating. The surface response to solar
forcing is quite sensitive to characterization of the
surface albedo, heat capacity and moisture.
There is a great deal of heterogeneity in the surface characteristics
on the scales at which we can currently run the model
(1 km or so) that is not accurately represented in the current surface
data set. We can use remotely sensed data from
LANDSAT or the current EOS platforms to better represent the surface
characteristics. The response to local warm and
cool (or dry and moist) spots will have an effect on the basin scale
circulations that we wish to capture. There is also a
great deal of observational data available that we can use to enhance
the model initialization. The Maricopa County Flood
control district maintains a network of 18 meteorological stations
that can be used for specifying initial conditions and
verifying the model forecast fields. In addition, the Salt River Project
maintains a network of mesonet stations and is
generating a high resolution precipitation data set.
Incorporating the data described above into the model will be useful
to the National Weather Service, Dept of
Environmental Quality and Flood Control districts for short range forecasting
of local conditions. This would also fit into
objectives of a Phoenix 2100 study. Given projections of urban expansion
we could modify the surface data characteristics
and simulate daily and short term variations in the "new" urban area.
Emphasis would be placed on the diurnal
temperature cycle, basin scale circulations and changes in the distribution
of precipitation through the valley. These are
important in determining future power/utility needs, air quality and
management of artificial lakes. One could also
experiment with alternate development scenarios and determine the changes
to the future regional climate. This might
lead to optimal development schemes that minimize impact on the microclimate.
The model output described above is often difficult to interpret by
anyone other than meteorologists (and often by the
meteorologists). Developing user-friendly, easy to access and visually
appealing tools for display of the model output is
another area we can emphasize. Making data such as this available to
the public is something that I had started to get
involved with while I was with UA, and would be interested in continuing
here.
I have discussed the above with Libby Wentz who has a great deal of
experience with GIS systems and Tony Brazel who
has expertise in observational microclimate studies. Both of them would
contribute greatly too the studies described above.
The studies described above target key areas described by the
Geosciences directorate,
http://www.geo.nsf.gov/geo/itr/geo_ap.html and I believe fit in well
with the overall theme of Phoenix 2100. I'd be happy to
discuss this with you further.
-Joe Zehnder